Japanese Economist Explains Why Another Bitcoin Price Surge Is Unlikely




Yukio Noguchi, a famous economist in Japan and an advisor to Waseda University’s Business and Finance Research Center argues we can’t expect Bitcoin’s prices to rapidly surge again. In his books and in recent articles, Noguchi makes his case eloquently. He wrote a recent article in Diamond Weekly clarifying his position but has been making his case since January of this year and published a book last December.


He argues that the introduction of the futures market has driven down the price considerably. This year in January he persuasively argued that the cause of Bitcoin price collapse was the start of the selling of bitcoin futures. “Bitcoin prices were a bubble, to begin with, and now we’re seeing a return to normal values. The San Francisco Federal Bank, in a report, also suggested that the introduction of Bitcoin futures trading caused a price drop. Additionally, the market is heading towards a situation in which it will be possible to short-sell bitcoin futures and that will also contribute to keeping the prices down. Noguchi points to a paper published on May 7 by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, “How Futures Trading Changed Bitcoin Prices“, authored by Galina Hale, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Marianna Kudlyak, and Patrick Shultz.


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